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Intro ......
alculate “actual ordering quantity” (White wine: forecast demand 0.price 7.ppt Le Club Francais du Vin.75 White Red ave..13 CDF-analyzed decision 5.ppt (DownLoad).40 10. discount cost 2.96 3.80 1.45 3.ppt Le Club Francais du Vin.ppt Le Club Francais du Vin.50 shipping cost 1.ppt.Le Club Francais du Vin 다운받기 Le Club Francais du Vin.834 Implication: white wine & red wine: Co`Cu, x-axis: A/F) A/F ratio 누적확률 CDF-fourth step 4.97 CDF-fourth step 4. Calculate white wine 누적확률 by applying critical ratio 0.margin 3.13) What if we assume normal distribution Average A/F ratio 0.75 Too Much and Too little cost white red underage cost per unit 2.ppt Le Club Francais du Vin.75 Critical Ratio 0.00 ave.ppt Le Club Francais du Vin.45 3.00 Ave margin-shipping cost 2.01 Ave margin 3.ppt Le Club Francais du Vin.40 10. Label n=40 and calculate cumulative probability ......
Index & Contents
Le Club Francais du Vin 다운받기
Le Club Francais du Vin.ppt (DownLoad).zip
Le Club Francais du Vin
Background
Found in 1973
Mainly French wine
Membership base in France Switzerland Germany
Typical customer segments: 60s
Mission: good wine with good quality
Characteristics: below radar screen (hire wine experts)
Current status
La Selection
-Company’s recommendation
-Detail description label
La Cave
-Discount wine from last year (previous catalog)
-No detail description
Etiquette
-Every two months via a catalog
-Le Club 50,000 members
Current problem
Discrepancy between forecast and actual demand delphi method and sales pattern
Inventory management and uncertain demand
Ex) Jan 2004 case
Overage cost
-Warehouse cost
-discount
Underage cost
-Lost of customers(current and potential)
-No gross margin
Cost analysis
White
Red
Ave price
7.40
10.01
Ave margin
3.70
5.00
Ave margin-shipping cost
2.45
3.75
White
Red
ave.price
7.40
10.01
ave.margin
3.70
5.00
ave. discount cost
2.96
3.00
ave. warehouse cost for ave.months
0.80
1.50
shipping cost
1.25
1.25
total ave.margin (=cost)
-1.31
-0.75
Too Much and Too little cost
white
red
underage cost per unit
2.45
3.75
overage cost per unit
1.31
0.75
Critical Ratio
0.651
0.834
Implication:
white wine & red wine: Co`Cu, even though actual demand is low, it is better to keep in the inventory
CDF-first step
1. Calculate Actual /forecast ratio
CDF-second step
2. Label n=40 and calculate cumulative probability
CDF-third step
3. Draw a graph (y-axis: 누적, x-axis: A/F)
A/F ratio
누적확률
CDF-fourth step
4. Calculate white wine 누적확률
by applying critical ratio
0.97
CDF-fourth step
4. Calculate red wine 누적확률
by applying critical ratio
1.13
CDF-analyzed decision
5. Calculate “actual ordering quantity”
(White wine: forecast demand 0.97)/(Red wine : forecast demand 1.13)
What if we assume normal distribution
Average A/F ratio
0.87
stdev of A/…(생략)
Le Club Francais du Vin.ppt Le Club Francais du Vin.ppt Le Club Francais du Vin.ppt Le Club Francais du Vin.ppt Le Club Francais du Vin.ppt Le Club Francais du Vin.ppt Le Club Francais du Vin.ppt Le Club Francais du Vin.ppt Le Club Francais du Vin.ppt
FM FM du Le Vin du 다운받기 Francais 다운받기 Vin du 다운받기 Vin Francais Club Club Le FM Club Le Francais
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34 Implication: white wine & red wine: Co`Cu, even though actual demand is low, it is better to keep in the inventory CDF-first step 1.margin 3. Le Club Francais du Vin 다운받기 CF .25떡갈나무 도토리 속.70 5.40 10. Label n=40 and calculate cumulative probability CDF-third step 3.40 10. Calculate Actual /forecast ratio CDF-second step 2.ppt Le Club Francais du Vin.45 3. Calculate white wine 누적확률 by applying critical ratio 0. Le Club Francais du Vin 다운받기 CF .13) What if we assume normal distribution Average A/F ratio 0. Le Club Francais du Vin 다운받기 CF .ppt Le Club Francais du Vin. discount cost 2.31 -0.months 0. Le Club Francais du Vin 다운받기 CF . Le Club Francais du Vin 다운받기 CF .margin (=cost) -1.80 1.ppt Le Club Francais du Vin.00 ave.87 stdev of A/…(생략) Le Club Francais du Vin.45 3.13 CDF-analyzed decision 5.Le Club Francais du Vin 다운받기 Le Club Francais du Vin.75 Too Much and Too little cost white red underage cost per unit 2.31 0. Le Club Francais du Vin 다운받기 CF .00 ave.ppt Le Club Francais du Vin.Le Club Francais du Vin 다운받기 CF . 5 overage cost per unit 1.00 Ave margin-shipping cost 2. Le Club Francais du Vin 다운받기 CF ..75 White Red ave. Le Club Francais du Vin 다운받기 CF .ppt Le Club Francais du Vin.50 shipping cost 1.97 CDF-fourth step 4.ppt Le Club Francais du Vin. Le Club Francais du Vin 다운받기 CF . warehouse cost for ave.ppt (DownLoad). Le Club Francais du Vin 다운받기 CF .75 Critical Ratio 0. Calculate red wine 누적확률 by applying critical ratio 1.96 3.01 Ave margin 3.price 7.ppt Le Club Francais du Vin. Le Club Francais du Vin 다운받기 CF . Calculate “actual ordering quantity” (White wine: forecast demand 0.651 0.ppt.01 ave. Draw a graph (y-axis: 누적, x-axis: A/F) A/F ratio 누적확률 CDF-fourth step 4.ppt Le Club Francais du Vin..97)/(Red wine : forecast demand 1.70 5.zip Le Club Francais du Vin Background Found in 1973 Mainly French wine Membership base in France Switzerland Germany Typical customer segments: 60s Mission: good wine with good quality Characteristics: below radar screen (hire wine experts) Current status La Selection -Company’s recommendation -Detail description label La Cave -Discount wine from last year (previous catalog) -No detail description Etiquette -Every two months via a catalog -Le Club 50,000 members Current problem Discrepancy between forecast and actual demand delphi method and sales pattern Inventory management and uncertain demand Ex) Jan 2004 case Overage cost -Warehouse cost -discount Underage cost -Lost of customers(current and potential) -No gross margin Cost analysis White Red Ave price 7.25 total av.